New NYC Crime Data Show Crime Would Drop by 90% Without ‘Diversity’

New York City, the bustling metropolis renowned for its cultural diversity and iconic skyline, has always been a city of contradictions. As we delve into the latest crime report for the year 2022, we are confronted with an unsettling reality that highlights both challenges and disparities in crime statistics.

The recently released crime report for New York City in 2022 serves as a valuable resource for understanding the intricacies of criminal activity within the city. This annual report compiles data on various criminal offenses, helping law enforcement agencies, policymakers, and the public gain insights into crime trends and patterns.

In 2022, New York City witnessed a total of 414 homicides. One striking aspect of these tragic events is the demographic breakdown of the victims, suspects, and arrestees. According to the data, black individuals comprised 63 percent of the homicide victims, 64 percent of the suspects, and 58 percent of the arrestees. This discrepancy raises important questions about the underlying factors contributing to these statistics.

Hispanic individuals were also significantly involved in homicides, accounting for 26 percent of the victims, 31 percent of the suspects, and 36 percent of the arrestees. This suggests that a considerable portion of the city’s population was affected by this type of crime. Examining the reasons behind these numbers is crucial to developing effective crime prevention strategies.

Whites make up approximately 31 percent of the population, while blacks constitute just over 20 percent, Asians represent 14 percent, and Hispanics account for 29 percent. When analyzing the data based on the population size of each group and their per capita crime rates, the statistics reveal stark disparities. Blacks are astonishingly 33.7 times more likely than whites to be identified as murder suspects, while Hispanics also exhibit a significantly higher likelihood at 11.2 times, and Asians are 2.2 times more likely to be implicated as suspects.

Another alarming statistic from the 2022 crime report was the number of reported robberies, which reached a staggering 20,295 cases. What is particularly noteworthy is the demographic makeup of those involved in these crimes. Despite black and Hispanic individuals constituting approximately 20 percent of the city’s population, they accounted for the vast majority of robbery arrestees.

In the case of rape, much like the occurrence of grand larceny nearby, it is notable that whites were fairly well represented. In the context of last year’s 1,224 reported rapes, blacks were only approximately six times more likely, and Hispanics about four times more likely than whites to be identified as suspects.

Felonious assault, encompassing 26,301 reported incidents, involves the act of attacking and causing harm to someone with or without a weapon, resulting in severe injury. Grand larceny, which involves the theft of items valued at $1,000 or more, emerged as the most prevalent among these crimes, with a total of 50,577 reported cases. In this context, Hispanics were only twice as likely as whites to be implicated as suspects, and intriguingly, Asians were slightly less likely than whites to be identified as suspects.

Lastly, let’s examine incidents involving firearms, specifically shootings. This refers to instances where individuals discharge a firearm and cause physical harm to others. Such incidents occurred a total of 1,566 times last year, encompassing all gun-related homicides. Therefore, it’s apparent that there were at least 1,100 shootings where individuals were injured but not fatally.

Remarkably, this type of crime is disproportionately associated with individuals of black ethnicity, with Hispanics trailing but still exhibiting a likelihood 25.5 times higher than whites to be considered suspects. Interestingly, Asians stand out as well, being nearly three times more likely than whites to be identified as suspects in such cases.

Barely half of murder cases in the United States get solved. The national homicide clearance rate is at an all-time low, according to FBI data.

During the mid-1960s, over ninety percent of homicide cases were successfully resolved, leading to arrests. However, as we approached 1990, this percentage declined to the sixties. The year 2020 witnessed a significant spike in homicides, coinciding with the national clearance rate plummeting to approximately 50 percent, marking the first time it had ever reached such a low point.

Cities are evaluated on various fronts when it comes to ensuring safety and justice, including crime rates, community-police relations, and the treatment of incarcerated individuals. However, one critical but often overlooked metric is clearance rates, which indicate the percentage of crimes resulting in arrests. It is disconcerting to note that the clearance rates for the NYPD have witnessed a significant decline. Unsolved crimes represent an absence of justice, leaving victims and their families trapped in a state of fear and disillusionment.

The gravity of the crime amplifies the necessity for law enforcement to identify culprits and for the courts to hold them accountable. In the year 2021, there were a total of 488 homicides, but merely 56% of these cases resulted in arrests, marking a decline from 64% in 2020 and 71% in 2019. In 2022, although the number of homicides decreased, the percentage of cases cleared improved, reaching 64%. While this signifies progress, it still translates to hundreds of individuals falling victim to murder without their assailants facing justice.

The Big Apple’s most recent quarterly report on clearance rates shows an increase for murder suspects, but just 43% for shootings and 29% for major crimes overall.

According to a recent report from AmRen, if New York City had the demographic makeup it did back in the 1950s, where the population was around 90% white, crime would essentially disappear.

Homicides would experience an astounding decline of 90.6 percent, while robbery rates would plummet by 85.8 percent. Incidents of rape, felonious assault, and grand larceny would also decrease, albeit to a lesser extent. Instances of shootings would virtually vanish.

Reasons for the Crime Disparities

In a recent study conducted by Sariaslan et al. in 2021, a sibling analysis was employed to examine the connection between childhood family income and occurrences of mental illness, substance abuse, and arrests related to violent crimes. This approach allowed for an exploration of potential causality since the children involved grew up during varying periods when family income levels fluctuated. These fluctuations could potentially result in varying degrees of impact, either attenuated or amplified, depending on the income level during specific periods. Similar to the findings of the preceding two studies, no causal relationship was observed between childhood family income and criminal behavior.

Another study conducted in the United States by Chetty et al. in 2018 revealed disparities in crime rates across different socioeconomic statuses among racial groups. Through an analysis of IRS data encompassing all children born in the United States between 1978 and 1983, Chetty et al. identified a pattern wherein blacks exhibited higher crime rates than whites across all income brackets.

As evident from the data, when income is taken into account, the disparities in crime rates between white and black males do not closely correspond. In the case of females, although the difference is comparatively smaller, this outcome is unsurprising considering that the majority of criminal incidents involve males.

These findings mirror the results obtained by Zaw, Hamilton, and Darity (2016), where they similarly identified higher crime rates among blacks compared to whites across all income brackets.

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