Recently, there has been a major push toward law and order from even many democrats because of the crime surge plaguing the US.
For example, a former police captain Eric Adams, swept past all other democrats in the New York mayoral primaries, and President Joe Biden recently called for diverting $350 billion for more police to reduce the crime wave.
But the recent sentencing of Derek Chauvin might undo any hopes of quelling the violence devastating most major US cities.
Many Americans were skeptical that Biden’s call for more police was going to work before the Chauvin sentencing, and are even more skeptical now.
Police are transferring, retiring, and quitting at the highest rates in history for a reason, many police believe the risks now vastly outweigh the benefits.
A total of 363 officers retired from the Chicago Police Department between January and June this year, with another 56 on track to quit in July, according to figures from the police pension board.
If the trend continues, the mass departure will even dwarf the 560 retirements last year, when swathes of officers quit amid protests over the police murder of George Floyd and demands to defund the police.
With only around 13,000 cops remaining, Chicago’s 117,000 gang members now outnumber officers by roughly 10 to one, at a time when the Windy City is facing a surge in violent crime.
With Derek Chauvin getting 22 years in prison, police are going to stay far away from high-crime American neighborhoods, which happen to be some of the most dangerous places in the world.
Looking forward to a ‘hot summer’ is an understatement, it’s going to be sweltering. Crime is surging, it’s due to police demoralization, and it’s about to get a lot worse.
It is necessary to begin back in 2013 for everyone to understand what is happening today, how this could have been avoided, and maybe still can.
In 2013, the Black Lives Matter movement began with the use of the hashtag #BlackLivesMatter on social media after the acquittal of George Zimmerman in the shooting death of African-American teen Trayvon Martin 17 months earlier in February 2012.
The movement became nationally recognized for street demonstrations following the 2014 death of Michael Brown where the popular false slogan ‘hands us don’t shoot’ became famous.
The movement gained international attention and support from nearly every institution and major corporation after the death of George Floyd.
The movement itself is based on a lie, a lie that the media, corporations, and every institution continue to tell – and a lie that has caused mass destruction in its wake.
Why is the BLM Narrative a Lie?
Around 25% of the people killed by police yearly are black Americans, and around 50% are white. Hundreds of more white Americans are killed by police every year, but black Americans are shot and killed by police at a higher rate compared to their population percentage.
The rate at which black Americans are killed by the police is what the national media uses to mislead those who click on their headlines, but there is one major omission that has led to nationwide destruction for almost a decade.
FBI data show that for every 10,000 Black Americans arrested for violent crime, 3 are killed, yet for every 10,000 White Americans arrested for violent crime, 4 are killed. Black officers on black perpetrators account for many of the incidents.
This means that when the crime rate is controlled for – which translates into the chance someone has of having a police encounter – no racial disparity in police shootings can be found.
The current scientific consensus after controlling for the rate of a police encounter is that there is zero racial bias or disparity in deadly police incidents.
A Long List of Scientific Papers Disprove Racial Bias in Police killings
Lott and Moody (2017), Using one of the most comprehensive lists of police shootings compiled, find blacks suspects are not more likely to be shot by white officers than blacks after controlling for a whole host of variables and finds no support for racially-based discrimination by white officers.
Cesario et al. (2018) – We know blacks are overrepresented compared to their % of the population in police killings, but that isn’t the right benchmark. Blacks also commit more crimes which makes them more likely to find themselves in scenarios involving police, and that alone means they’re more likely to “act out” and lead to a justified police killing. Using various metrics of crime (murder, violent crime, weapons violations), and looking at all fatal shootings, they found a consistent anti-white bias in police shootings. Disaggregating the data and only looking at unarmed victims shows blacks still usually not being discriminated against and, in fact, being shot less than you’d expect.
James (2016) did a lab experiment with police officers and found officers took longer to shoot blacks than whites in their scenarios (1.09 to shoot a white, 1.32 seconds to shoot a black), and they were more likely to wrongly shoot nonaggressing whites than nonaggressing blacks.
Johnson et al. (2019) looked at 2015 data and found that black and white cops were equally likely to shoot blacks.
Fryer (2016, revised 2018) found no racial bias in police shootings, though he did find bias in police use of force. The data was limited to Houston, though, and most studies on police use of force show no bias or even the reverse.
Goff et al. (2016) found no bias in police shootings but did find a bias in the police force (like Fryer). However, when they controlled for violent crime, whites were actually more likely to experience the use of force than blacks were.
Phillips and Kim (2021) found that Citizen race/ethnicity and gender were not significant determinants of officer-involved shootings (OIS).
Wang and Fan (2021) found no significant evidence to conclude that racial discrimination occurred during fatal police shootings.
Maguire (2020) reports that among those who had force used against them, African American suspects were significantly less likely than white suspects to be injured. The risk of injury for other racial and ethnic groups is about the same as the risk for white suspects.
Davis (2019) found Finally when assessing how factors like police officer’s race, age, years of service, or place of residence influence the decision to shoot an armed or unarmed suspect in the decision-making process in shoot/don’t shoot simulation scenarios. They found that some police officers displayed implicit bias, but there was no activation of the bias against the Black male suspects. The participants shot armed White males more quickly than armed Black males and the aforementioned factors did not have an effect on the decision to shoot/don’t shoot an unarmed Black male.
Ross (2015) found a racial bias in police shootings & was widely reported in media. There are critical issues that weren’t reported though: It didn’t use incident level data, making it subject to the ecological fallacy. Further, it used odd metrics of crime (like assault and weapons violations), when crimes like homicide are more appropriate because those crimes typically include a body and have much less police discretion in terms of arrests etc. These crimes also are more violent than weapons violations, which may not meaningfully predict how likely someone is going to run into the police in a violent encounter (if a black with a CCW accidentally walks into a gun-free building, that’s technically a violation but isn’t violent and may not predict a violent encounter with a cop like stabbing someone would). This paper isn’t too convincing because of that.
Why They Are Protesting
For 7 months BLM rioters looted hundreds of stores, blew up hundreds of ATMs, set fire to police precincts, caused billions of dollars in damage, took control of entire neighborhoods leading to dozens of deaths, and extorted businesses in the neighborhoods they seized.
Cherry-picked viral occurrences like the George Floyd incident are what triggers nationwide unrest, while stories like the Tony Timpa incident are ignored in pursuit of narrative control.
Derek Chauvin, whose name everyone knows, was sentenced to 22 years in prison – while the police involved in the Tony Timpa case, whose names most are not familiar with – were completely exonerated.
Fabrications like Michael Brown’s hands up don’t shoot, which led to weeks of protests and riots in Ferguson, or Latrell Allen of Chicago, which led to two people shot, days of looting, and millions of dollars in damage – are directly caused by falsehoods told by the American media and supporters of the Black Lives Matter movement.
In June of 2021, a police precinct was set ablaze after a black man with an illegal gun and drugs was arrested in South Carolina. The riots in South Carolina happened simply because of an arrest, no one was killed.
On June 24 of 2021, the Portland police rushed to alert everyone that the man they shot was white and not black, to prevent riots from happening.
In June of 2020, the Washington Post ran a headline claiming “Police killing black people is a pandemic, too.”
Popular figureheads of black lives matter claim “Police are killing black people by the thousands because they’re black, and getting away with it.” No one in the national mainstream media cares to fact-check this narrative or dares to challenge it in any way.
Activists during the protests hold up signs saying ‘Stop killing us,’ and ‘Is my son next?’ A YaIe Psychiatry Department professor, Dr Ayana Jordan, recently said that black people are being ‘terrorized daily,’ and that we should start thinking of George Floyd as a saint. During the Ferguson riots, black lives matter rioters could be heard encouraging people to beat up any white person they see.
It is clear to most Americans why these protests and riots happen, and what the message is of those who participate.
Some activists also claim that police are committing genocide against black people, and that some white people may have to die to feel our pain.
Professional basketball player for the Los Angeles Lakers, Lebron James, once tweeted that Black Americans are being quite literally “hunted” by White people. His tweet received tens of thousands of retweets, and hundreds of thousands of interactions.
According to all available data, all of these claims are entirely false.
Taking into account that Black Americans are far more likely to commit violent crimes than Whites, available data, if anything, suggests an anti-white bias.
Polling Among BLM Activists and Liberals
One poll gives us insight into how much of an effect this misinformation has on the average news media viewer.
According to the poll, the higher trust you have in the mainstream media, and the more liberal you are, the more likely you are to believe in inaccurate information about police shootings.
Those that have the highest trust in the mainstream media believe that almost 60% of the people killed by police are black. Those that have the lowest trust believe that number is around 30%. The real number is around 29% on average.
60% of those that categorize themselves as very liberal believe that police kill anywhere between 100 and 1,000 unarmed black people per year. 78% of those that categorize themselves as very conservative believe that number is closer to 10. The real number is about 10.
Another AP-NORC poll showed that 6 in 10 people say police are more likely to use deadly force against a black person than against a white person, and 9 in 10 black people say police are more likely to use deadly force against a black person than against a white person.
The results are eerily similar to the polls taken across the political spectrum on covid case counts and hospitalization rates from covid. According to the polling – which was also recently mentioned on the Real-Time with Maher show – the more liberal you are and the more you trust the media, the more likely you are to believe in inaccurate information about covid.
Researchers involved in the Franklin Templeton/Gallup study asked Americans in December what “percentage of people who have been infected by the coronavirus needed to be hospitalized.”
The perceptions of most people were way off from reality.
The best available estimates place the figure between 1 and 5 percent, and much less for those who have high vitamin d.
Support for Black Lives Matter Plummets, Crime Now Top Concern
Despite over 50% of people believing that police are more likely to kill a black person than a white person due to media misinformation, many believe that the BLM movement has done more harm than good.
According to Pew Research support for Black Lives Matter has dropped substantially since the George Floyd riots. Support among whites dropped by about 25% and for Latinos and Asians support has fallen by about 11%.
According to a USA today poll – overall support for Black lives matter has dropped below 50%, and a Marquette university poll shows support is at 48% overall. A recent Yahoo / YouGov poll shows that views of Black Lives Matter are at 47 percent positive and 48 percent negative overall with only 41% of whites now supporting the movement.
Another poll out of Minnesota from May of 2021 found that a large majority of Minnesotans are concerned about what they feel is an increase in crime and many have lost confidence in Gov. Tim Walz to deal with the problem.
According to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll more Americans now say violent crime is a “very big problem” in the U.S. than say the same about COVID-19
In July of 2020 60% of respondents said Covid was their primary concern, with race relations in 2nd place at 54%, today the majority of respondents say violent crime is their top concern, down to just 32%.
Support for BLM today is unpopular and crime is now the top concern even above the economy and covid. Many Americans now say BLM has done more harm than good. Imagine what these numbers would be if the media was honest about crime by race, and why the crime surge is happening.
The Truth About the Crime Surge
The new crime reporting system released by the FBI shows that the murder rate in almost every city in the United States is at the highest levels in over twenty years.
Using the FBI data, crime analyst Jeff Asher concluded that the murder rate for 2020 was approximately 6.22 per 100,000 people. Not since 1998 has the country seen a murder rate that high.
In St. Louis, Missouri, for example, the city saw the highest homicide rate in 50 years at 87 killings per 100,000 residents. Asher says that’s one of the highest murder rates ever recorded in a U.S. city.
To put this into perspective, Rio De Janeiro has a homicide rate of 29 per 100,000 people, and the murder rate there as well as other third world cities have remained relatively stable throughout the pandemic.
But it’s probably worse than this because these are estimated numbers from 2020.
Recent numbers show in Atlanta homicides are up 58% compared to 2020, with LA, NYC, Chicago, Baltimore, Minneapolis, and other cities surging as well.
If we increase another 25% over the 20% increase already predicted from 2020, the US can expect a homicide that is almost 8 per 100,000 people nationally – something we haven’t seen since the mid-1990s.
Despite some claims that the surge in crime is due to the pandemic, crime rates are increasing only for a few specific categories—namely homicides and shootings—while property crimes and robberies mostly continue to fall. Historically there is no link between short periods of economic disruption and murder rates.
According to studies, the recent spikes in homicides have been caused by a “Minneapolis Effect,” similar to the earlier “Ferguson Effect, directly after the protests.
According to many economists and criminologists, the reason for the surge in homicides is indeed due to police ‘backing down’ from enforcement in the face of public backlash. Police across the nation are either retiring at record rates or transferring out of Black majority cities due to the stigma caused by the protests and riots.
The cost of policing for them outweighs the benefits, especially with the push for the removal of qualified immunity.
In July of 2021, MSNBC Anchor Chris Hayes definitively declared on his show that increased gun sales are what’s driving the spike in violent crime we’ve seen over the last year or so.
The idea that increased gun sales are responsible for the surge in violent crime across the country has been debunked by academic studies, but that did not stop outlets like MSNBC from misleading their viewers. In fact, the results of a study reported at the left-leaning paper The Guardian says otherwise.
Through July of last year, there was no clear association between the increase in firearm purchases and the increase in most interpersonal gun violence at the state level, according to a new study published in Injury Epidemiology,a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
Media Misinformation Has Also Led to Black Nationalist Attacks and Many Anti-white Attacks
Micah Xavier Johnson, who killed five police officers in Dallas, was increasingly drawn to black nationalist ideology and attended several meetings of the People’s New Black Panther Party.
Gavin Eugene Long, who killed three officers in Baton Rouge, said he belonged to the Washitaw Nation, an obscure black nationalist group that claims ownership to the huge swath of the United States obtained in the Louisiana Purchase on the belief that they are descended from a U.S. indigenous group.
Black Nationalist Othal “O-Zone” Wallace, was identified as the man who allegedly shot officer Jason Raynor in June of 2021, leaving him in critical condition in the hospital and having to undergo several surgeries.
As of June, 51 law enforcement officers have been shot in 40 ambush-style attacks this year. Including non-ambushed attacks, 150 officers have been shot thus far in 2021 and 28 police officers have been killed by gunfire.
In all of 2020, 48 ambush-style attacks occurred that left 60 wounded and 12 dead, according to the National Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) —a 91 percent increase in ambush-style attacks from the year before, according to the NFOP. The new numbers represent a disturbing uptick of assaults against police in the past few months.
A Tool of the System
There are a sum total of zero articles from mainstream national media outlets refuting the Black Lives Matter narrative, or even merely criticizing the movement in any way. There are also no articles that suggest the Black Lives Matter protests spread COVID-19 during any of the protests.
In fact, there are some headlines that claim the protests actually slowed the spread of COVID-19. It seems that in order for the mainstream media to determine if certain protests spread the virus, it really depends on who’s protesting what. In July of 2020, the NY Times officially conceded this point.
“Public health experts decried the anti-lockdown protests as dangerous gatherings in a pandemic. Health experts seem less comfortable doing so now that the marches are against racism.”
Pick any one of the anti-lockdown protests that occurred in the summer of 2020, and you will find a variety of mainstream articles suggesting that these protests were superspreaders. But after hundreds of thousands gathered for a summer of protests and riots, the mainstream medical community, the media, corporations, and every institution applauded their activism.
More than 1,300 public health officials signed a May 30 letter of support, and many even joined the protests. Public health experts and the media said the ‘pandemic is why the protests must continue,’ while also claiming that ‘racism is a much bigger public health crisis.’
“White supremacy is a lethal public health issue that predates and contributes to COVID-19,” states the letter, before adding, “Black people are twice as likely to be killed by police compared to white people, but the effects of racism are far more pervasive.”
“As public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission,” states the letter. “We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States.”
The letter then claims that ‘stay-at-home’ protests shouldn’t be treated the same because they “not only oppose public health interventions but are also rooted in white nationalism and run contrary to respect for Black lives.”
A top health official in New York said that if there is a second spike in coronavirus cases, “racism” will be to blame, not thousands of demonstrators gathering in close proximity.
Mark D. Levine, the Chair of the New York City council health committee, tweeted, “Let’s be clear about something: if there is a spike in coronavirus cases in the next two weeks, don’t blame the protesters. Blame racism.”
In February of 2020, prior to the string of protests, the same doctor urged New Yorkers to congregate in large numbers to celebrate the Chinese Lunar New Year parade as a show of “defiance” against the COVID-19 “scare”.
In 2020, as riots and protests swept across America following the death of George Floyd, the Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation took in just over $90 million last year, according to financials obtained by AP.
The Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation ended 2020 with a balance of more than $60 million, after allegedly spending approximately $20 million of its assets on grant funds and other charitable giving.
The BLM foundation’s individual donations from its main platform traditionally averaged around $30.00, with more than 10% of donations being recurring. However, AP noted that the foundation’s report does not state where the money went in 2020 and that BLM leaders declined to name prominent donors.
Last year, the foundation’s expenses were approximately $8.4 million, including staffing, operating, and administrative costs, along with activities such as civic engagement, rapid response and crisis intervention.
Critics argue that the foundation has increasingly moved away from being a Black radical organizing hub and has become a philanthropic and political organization run without democratic input from some of its earliest supporters.
Several chapters, including those in cities including Washington, Philadelphia and Chicago, were notified last year of their eligibility to receive $500,000 each in funding under a multiyear agreement, according to records shared with AP. However, only one group in Denver signed the agreement and received its funds in September.
A group of 10 chapters, called #BLM10, rejected the foundation’s funding offer, and proceeded to complain publicly about the foundation’s lack of transparency in a letter released Nov. 30.
“For years there has been inquiry regarding the financial operations of BLMGN and no acceptable process of either public or internal transparency about the unknown millions of dollars donated to BLMGN, which has certainly increased during this time of pandemic and rebellion,” the letter states. “To the best of our knowledge, most chapters have received little to no financial support from BLMGN since the launch in 2013. It was only in the last few months that selected chapters appear to have been invited to apply for a $500,000 grant created with resources generated because of the organizing labor of chapters. This is not the equity and financial accountability we deserve.”
We Need More Police, More in Prison, and Joe Biden Seems to Agree
According to Pew Research, over half of homicides and violent crimes go unsolved. Over the past few decades, there have been thousands of people released from prison, many of them going on to commit serious violent crimes.
For example, in June of 2020, a career criminal with more than 100 arrests to his name was busted for cruelly shoving a 92-year-old woman into a Manhattan fire hydrant — leaving his victim too scared to walk alone in her own neighborhood.
In San Francisco, after a black man was arrested for attacking an elderly Asian man while collecting cans, District attorney Chesa Boudin withdrew charges and pursued a “restorative justice” model against the 20-year-old man arrested in the attack.
In May of 2021, the state of California announced that it was set to release at least 63,000 inmates convicted of violent crimes to create “safer prisons.” Hundreds of other cities across the country announced similar action.
Most of the stories that trigger the Black Lives Matter riots are about people who should be in prison for the multiple crimes – and for some multiple felonies – they committed. George Floyd, Rashard Brooks, Jacob Blake, and Ahmaud Arbery were all multiple-time offenders.
Americans believe in second chances, but many sour on the idea after the third and fourth crime.
More police in the most dangerous areas of the world like Baltimore, St Louis, Chicago, and Detroit – and more criminals locked up – equals more freedom for those black communities plagued by crime. How free is a mother too afraid to let her child play out front because of drive-by shootings? How free grandmother too afraid to walk down the street without being attacked?
Order spawns freedom and always has.
Many on the political left will try to frame Black Lives Matter as being about something entirely different from what Black Lives Matter is actually about. Some will claim it is based on some deep intellectual premise like generational poverty, bad schooling, or redlining. The truth is that the movement started and continues to be about black Americans being killed by white police. This is why they’re protesting, and this is why there are riots.
According to some, the reason blacks commit vastly higher crime rates is due to “underfunded public programs, redlining, generational poverty, and bad schooling. Those willing to divert to this narrative when discovering the Black Lives Matter narrative is statistically incorrect, apply none of the blame to the people committing the crime unless they are white.
Although poor people do commit more crimes, this is not evidence of causality. Sariaslan et al. (2013) utilized a large sample of Swedish individuals born from 1975-1989. It was found that a 1 standard deviation increase in neighborhood deprivation was associated with a 57% increase in the chances of being convicted of a violent crime. However, controlling for unobserved confounders made the association disappear. After controlling for confounders, the association between neighborhood deprivation (poverty, basically) was shown not to be casual.
Furthermore, blacks and whites in similar economic conditions do not have the same level of crime. In a graph provided by Chetty et al. (2018), race differences in crime persisted even when comparing blacks and whites in the same income group. In fact, blacks in higher-income ranks have similar crime rates as whites in lower-income ranks (there was no difference when comparing white females and black females, but this isn’t an issue given that crime is primarily concentrated among men).
Zaw, Hamilton, and Darity (2016) found that rich black kids are more likely to go to jail than poor whites. We can use incarceration rates as a proxy for crime since incarceration rates align with crime reports. For example, after examining data over a 3-year period, O’Brien (2001, in Walsh and Ellis 2006) found that crime reports matched up with crime arrests for race, meaning that blacks were being arrested at the same rate that they committed crimes (see Wilson and Herrenstien 1985 for more).
Percent black is a better predictor of crime than poverty when put into a regression. Kposowa, Breault, and Harrison (1995) analyzed crime variation across 2,078 U.S counties and found that the proportion of the county that was % black continued to predict crime even after controlling for county differences in poverty, divorce rates, income inequality, religiosity, population density, and age. This was true for both violent crime and property crime.
Templer and Rushton (2011) looked at crime across the 50 U.S. states and found that the percent of the population that was black was a stronger correlate than the average income for murder rates (.84 v -.40), robbery rates (.77 v .06) and assault rates (.54 vs -.23) Income was a stronger correlate for rape rates than race, but the coefficients were weak.
In 1999, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published an economic policy review titled ‘Unequal Incomes, Unequal outcomes? Economic Inequality and Measures of Well-Being.’ It is shown on table 5 of page 93 that people belonging to black families in the top income bracket committed up to 5 times the rate of crime whites did of the same income bracket.
Moreover, from 1976 to 1995, offenders from the highest income bracket from black families committed a higher rate of violent crimes than the lowest income white families, at between 2 to 20 times the rate.
An analysis based on data provided by the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics also proved something similar. The study ‘Race, Wealth and Incarceration: Results from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth,’ released in the academic journal ‘Race and Social Problems,’ reveals that “although higher levels of wealth were associated with lower rates of incarceration, the likelihood of future incarceration still was higher for blacks at every level of wealth compared to the white likelihood, as well as the Hispanic likelihood, which fell below the white likelihood for some levels of wealth.”
It is also notable that Native Americans have generally had higher levels of poverty over the last 30 or so years, according to a study published by The Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality, yet still commit lower crime rates than blacks.